Member’s Post ::

The recent government publication, “Assessing the economic impact on the UK fleet of the cod recovery plan, West of Scotland measures and the economic downturn”, makes interesting reading, and highlights some very interesting points.

Firstly in this report, as with many other recent reports, it clearly states,

“Scientific evidence on the current state of fish stocks in EU waters indicates that the levels of exploitation for many stocks have been too high over the last decade.”

Many would suggest that this “exploitation” has been occurring for much, much longer. This is the core reason for having to implement the various recovery plans currently in operation. Commercial fisheries have consistently over-fished, leading to stocks in their current depleted states.

The publication itself concentrates on the financial sector of commercial fishing, looking at the various cost centres and how variations in these costs affect the industries profitability. By using cost models, the report attempts to predict what future profit levels may be.

From the report it can be seen that three factors are very critical in the profitability calculations.

1. Fuel costs.
2. Fish market prices.
3. TAC’s and quotas/Days at sea. (Fish catching opportunities)

The first two, fuel costs and fish prices are, in general, market driven, and largely outwith direct control of the fishermen.

The third is the direct repercussions of over-fishing, with the EU trying to control and stabilise fish stocks. It is here that the most pressure is applied by the commercial industry, often in defiance of scientific recommendation, to manipulate these factors to the industries benefit.

The reports “days at sea” detail makes fascinating reading as how the fleet can maximise existing days and “earn” additional ones. It explains how more environmentally friendly gear, such as the “Eliminator Trawl”, use of which would give substantial extra days at sea (24), are largely not used because of the costs of the gear.

In conclusion, there is no doubt from the report that the oversized fishing industry is being squeezed hard, with too many boats, with too great a catching potential, chasing too few fish.

Within the pages of graphs and tables there are occasional snippets worthy of more consideration. For instance, in its introduction, the report does make this most interesting, and possibly controversial, statement,

“The CFP faces a range of choices about how it will return fish stocks to an optimal level, and over what time frame it wishes to do this.

The timeline to recover a stock, can vary from a few years, to more than two decades, dependant on the approach adopted, i.e. ranging from a complete closure of the fishery (sometimes called the “bang bang” approach), to very limited restrictions on fisheries operations.

The time frame of the recovery, and short-term vessel profits, are inversely correlated: a shorter recovery timeframe will mean a sharper drop in vessel profits.

A recent study on the Western Channel Sole fishery, demonstrated that a drastic approach, cutting the fishing opportunities by almost half, would be the more profitable approach for the vessels involved in this particular fishery, when considering the net present value of the profits generated.

Vessels affected by a recovery plan, will see their profits reduced during the early stage of the recovery process, regardless of the timeframe for recovery chosen.

There are very few particular cases for which profit levels remain unchanged during a recovery plan, and those that do, imply a very low speed of recovery and high risk of failure.

There is therefore a trade-off between speed of recovery, chance of success, and vessel profitability to be made, when deciding the different elements and speed of implementation of a recovery plan. “

Or put more simply, a plan to improve stocks by drastically cutting catching opportunities in the short term, may be more profitable to the commercial fleet, than small reductions over a much longer time period, which appears to be current policy.

If true, this statement merits serious examination.

The full report can be obtained here.

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